Sanofi (NASDAQ: SNY) raises 2026 guidance as Dupixent sales climb 35%

Sanofi raised its 2026 guidance on 30 October after third-quarter net sales rose 14.3% at constant exchange rates to €14.44 billion and business earnings per share increased 19.6% to €3.55. The French drugmaker now expects full-year sales to grow by a low-teens percentage and business EPS by a mid-teens percentage, both at constant exchange rates.

Dupixent remains the centre of gravity. Sales of the immunology antibody, developed with Regeneron, rose 34.8% to €5.69 billion, roughly 39% of group sales and the second quarter above €5 billion. Newer medicines are growing quickly but from a far smaller base: pharma launches together rose 31.4% to €1.39 billion. ALTUVIIIO, the haemophilia A treatment, grew 37.8% to €408 million, Ayvakit 46.0% to €203 million and Rezurock 43.0% to €165 million, while Tzield more than doubled to €42 million. Qfitlia and Wayrilz contributed €8 million and €19 million respectively.

Vaccines moved the other way. Sales fell 6.6% to €3.19 billion, which Sanofi attributes mainly to the phasing of influenza deliveries and lower US sales of Beyfortus. Influenza and Covid-19 vaccines declined 18.8% to €1.26 billion, and Beyfortus, the RSV antibody for infants, fell 15.4% to €631 million, with US sales down 39.3% to €240 million partly offset by growth in Europe and the rest of the world. Phasing explains some of this, but the US Beyfortus decline is large enough to warrant attention, and it echoes the vaccine weakness at GSK reported on 28 October. Polio, pertussis and Hib vaccines, including Heplisav-B, were a bright spot, up 24.9% to €823 million.

The quality of the earnings beat rests on margins and cost control. Business gross margin rose 2.1 percentage points to 81.0%, while research and development spending was broadly flat at €1.85 billion, reflecting past terminations of vaccine projects, and selling and general expenses fell 0.9% at constant currency. Business operating income rose 19.7% to €5.43 billion. IFRS earnings per share grew more slowly, by 9.6% to €2.52, and the second quarter had included a €952 million impairment on the amlitelimab intangible asset, a reminder that not every pipeline bet has held its value.

Chief executive Belén Garijo was explicit about the priority: protecting earnings through Dupixent's loss of exclusivity. Business development is doing much of that work. Sanofi has expanded its Regeneron alliance to four long-acting antibodies, paying $1 billion upfront with up to $7 billion more in milestones and a 50:50 profit split. Separately, it plans to transfer 20 mature medicines and three manufacturing sites to Cheplapharm in exchange for a 26.4% equity stake, a deal that includes Lovenox outside the US, which had 2025 sales of €822 million, and is expected to complete by the third quarter of 2027.

Regulatory progress in the quarter was incremental rather than transformative: a US label update for a 50 mg dose of Ayvakit in indolent systemic mastocytosis, an EU extension of MenQuadfi to infants from six weeks, EU acceptance of a Teizeild filing in younger children with stage 2 type 1 diabetes, Chinese priority review for Beyfortus in a second RSV season and EU PRIME status for an mRNA pandemic influenza vaccine. Positive Phase 2 data for lunsekimig in asthma and nasal polyps add an option in respiratory disease, but Phase 3 data for duvakitug in ulcerative colitis are not expected until 2028.

The investment question is whether Sanofi is building a successor business or simply harvesting Dupixent efficiently. Flat research spending, an exit from legacy brands and partnership-led growth will flatter margins in the near term, yet the launch portfolio, at about a quarter of Dupixent's quarterly sales, is still far from filling the gap. Fourth-quarter results on 28 January 2027 will show whether the guidance upgrade marks durable momentum or a peak in the cycle.